GOVERNMENT minister Jim Knight will be ousted at next year’s general election but the Liberal Democrats will hold their seat in Dorset, according to a poll.

The YouGov survey of marginal constituencies, published over the weekend, suggested South Dorset will turn blue, while the neighbouring constituency of Mid Dorset and North Poole will remain in Lib Dem hands.

Labour frontbencher Mr Knight, who has held on to his seat at the last two elections, looks set to fall victim to the predicted Conservative surge.

But the South Dorset MP yesterday said he had overcome a similar challenge in past victories.

“It is a background I am used to working under,” he said.

“In South Dorset every vote counts, so people should not be complacent.”

Mr Knight predicted voters would be wary of changing governments as the “fragile signs of recovery” from the recession begin to emerge next year.

On a local level, he picked out the Weymouth relief road and halting the Purbeck bedroom tax as examples of his success stories in the last term.

Tory Richard Drax is the man set to inherit Mr Knight’s seat.

Judy Jamieson, campaigns manager for the Conservatives in Dorset, said all the indications were it would be a close battle in South Dorset.

She said: “The only real poll comes on election night. Everything is up for grabs.”

The poll suggests Lib Dem Annette Brooke would fend off the challenge Tory Nick King in her Mid Dorset and North Poole seat, though again a tight vote looks a certainty.

Mrs Brooke said nationally the Conservatives were ahead “by default” and there was everything to play for.

She added: “My motive for being in politics was to be a good constituency MP and that is what I want to continue to do.”

Mr King praised Mrs Brooke as a “very good local MP” but said if people wanted to vote for a new government, he was the “realistic” choice in the constituency.