BUSINESS leaders in Bournemouth and Poole are becoming more cautious, says a leading Dorset academic - but the outlook remains positive.

While the Confederation of British Industry (CBI) has forecast that at least 10,000 jobs could be lost in the UK's financial services industry in the next three months, there will be minimal job losses locally according to the South West of England Regional Development Agency (Swerda).

Tony Bray, area director of the agency, said: "We believe that the likes of JPMorgan Chase and Barclays are very strong organisations and that therefore any job losses should be minimal - if it all. Bournemouth and Poole should be well insulated."

Research fellow for Bournemouth University business school Dr Clare Chambers said: "We will experience self-perpetual motion - because the US is unstable this will have a knock-on effect in the City which in turn will affect us in Dorset.

"It's like a ripple effect. It won't happen immediately but there are tough times ahead. What happens in the City affects us.

"Unemployment levels fell this quarter. Admittedly we're in a microcosm here with Sandbanks and Poole but business leaders here are more cautious than before.

"Interestingly, the age of a first time-buyer has fallen from 31 to 29," she added.

Tony Bray said: "Bournemouth and Poole are where many of the major banks such as Barclays and JPMorgan Chase have offices that deal with transactions that we all make every day."

The financial crisis, which began after banks made huge losses on investments backed by US mortgages, has caused chaos on US and global markets.

Dr Chambers said: "Lehman Brothers, the Financial Services Authority (FSA), the Confederation of British Industry (CBI) and PriceWaterhouseCoopers are all reporting an economic downturn.

"The situation is unstable. UBS has been battered by the biggest writedowns from the collapse of the US subprime mortgage market.

"That bank has reported a 12 billion-franc ($11.9 billion) quarterly loss and chairman Marcel Ospel will step down. This will unsettle the market."