A NEW interactive map shows the areas of Bournemouth, Christchurch and Poole which are at greatest risk of flooding by 2030.

Research carried out by an independent organisation of leading global warming scientists and researchers, collectively known as Climate Central, predicts Mudeford and part of Christchurch as well as a portion of Brownsea Island, Baiter Park and Hamworthy Park could be underwater.

Christchurch Harbour is unsurprisingly among the worst predicted areas, around Hengistbury Head and Stanpit Marsh.

As well as areas around Hamworthy, Rockley Park and Lytchett Bay would be badly affected should water rise by one metre by 2030. 

The map also shows much of Bournemouth’s coastline is at risk of losing at least some land to the rising sea levels. 

Bournemouth Echo: Much of Mudeford could be underwater by 2030Much of Mudeford could be underwater by 2030

Climate Central investigate climate change and its impact on the public.

Using current projections, they have produced a map showing which areas of the country would be submerged by 2030.

Read more: What the local plan consultation says about climate change

Datasets include "some error"

Climate Central does admit the calculations that have led to fears of a nightmare scenario include "some error". 

It said: "These maps incorporate big datasets, which always include some error. These maps should be regarded as screening tools to identify places that may require deeper investigation of risk." 

Bournemouth Echo: Brownsea Island, Hamworthy and Baiter Park could all be underwater by 2030Brownsea Island, Hamworthy and Baiter Park could all be underwater by 2030

The maps have been based on "global-scale datasets for elevation, tides and coastal flood likelihoods" and "imperfect data is used".

Somewhat comfortingly, Climate Central adds: "Our approach makes it easy to map any scenario quickly and reflects threats from permanent future sea-level rise well.

"However, the accuracy of these maps drops when assessing risks from extreme flood events.

"Our maps are not based on physical storm and flood simulations and do not take into account factors such as erosion, future changes in the frequency or intensity of storms, inland flooding, or contributions from rainfall or rivers."

What the council's local plan document said about flooding

In BCP Council's consultation on the options for the Local Plan, BCP Council addressed the issues around climate change.

Referring specifically to flooding, it said: "Our evidence shows that the main types of flooding in the BCP area occur from tidal and coastal flooding, rivers (fluvial), surface water (pluvial) and to a lesser extent groundwater flooding", the consultation document said.

Any exemptions to the strict tests to protect people from flooding at potential development sites, need to be informed by a strategic flood assessment.

BCP Council say they will be producing a new Strategic Flood Risk Assessment to replace those of the legacy authorities.

Other evidence is being prepared, including a new Local Flood Risk Management Strategy, a Shoreline Management Plan and Christchurch Town Centre Flood Risk Strategy.

Bournemouth Echo: Christchurch Quay Christchurch Quay

"We know that both Christchurch and Poole town centres are at risk of flooding, predominantly from tidal and fluvial sources.

"However, we are exploring exemptions to see if development can be provided in these areas which will be safe for its lifetime.

"Bournemouth is currently less affected by tidal and fluvial flooding but has some surface water flooding issues where the drainage system is unable to accommodate intense rainfall events.

"The impacts of flooding are likely to be increased by climate change. The Local Plan can provide an opportunity to reduce surface water flooding through reduction in impermeable surfaces and ensuring the use of sustainable drainage systems in new development."