THE BCP area will have just a 16 per cent chance of recording more than 100 Covid cases a week later this month, according to a predictive map.

The conurbation currently has a 43 per cent chance of exceeding 100 infections over seven days.

By February 22, this is expected to fall to just 16 per cent where it will remain until the end of the month.

Meanwhile, the chance of recording an R rate above one is just one per cent.

The r rate, known as the reproduction number, is the average number of secondary infections produced by a single infected person.

The interactive map created by experts at Imperial College London forecasts what could happen in areas of the country up until February 28.

It gives estimates of the R rate number of Covid-19 and projections of cases by local authority in the UK based on testing data and mortality data.

Imperial College London says: “In the map, we show the probability of an area being a hotspot in the next one, two and three weeks.

“The projections for hotspot assume no change in interventions and human behaviour since a week before the last observed data.”

Areas with high numbers of cases are defined as ‘hotspots’ and mean the area has a high chance of recording more than 50, 100, 200, 300 or 500 cases of the coronavirus per 100,000 people per week.

On January 24, the BCP area was one of a few places in the country where cases were predicted to exceed more than 300 a week.

Public Health England data published on Monday, showed 75 cases had been confirmed in the BCP area in 24-hours.

The wider Dorset area has a one per cent chance of recording more than 100 cases per week and a 59 per cent chance of confirming more than 50 cases per week.

This is set to fall to just 20 per cent from February 21 until the end of the month.

England has been under a national lockdown since January 5 with people urged to ‘stay at home’ and only leave for essential reasons including to work if they cannot do so from home, to buy food, seek medical assistance, meet your support bubble or for exercise.

Boris Johnson will set out a ‘road map’ for how lockdown restrictions could be eased on February 22.

To view the Imperial College London map visit https://imperialcollegelondon.github.io/covid19local/#map