THE BCP Council area has just a 14 per cent chance of having a weekly Covid case rate of more than 100 infections per 100,000 people on the eve of a potential lockdown easing, according to a predictive map.

The conurbation currently has a seven-day case rate of 150.3 infections per 100,000 people.

In the week ending February 28, the map says there is currently a 28 per cent chance of the rate being above 100. It is forecast as 92 per cent likely that the rate will be more than 50.

Meanwhile, it is forecast that there is just a two per cent chance that the R rate is above one across the conurbation.

The R rate, known as the reproduction number, is the average number of secondary infections produced by a single infected person.

The interactive map created by experts at Imperial College London forecasts what could happen in areas of the country up until March 7.

It gives estimates of the R rate number of Covid-19 and projections of cases by local authority in the UK based on testing data and mortality data.

The prediction for the week ending March 7 says it is just 14 per cent likely that the case rate will be more than 100 cases per 100,000 . The BCP Council rolling-seven day rate has not been below 100 since December 14.

Meanwhile, it is 62 per cent likely that the rate will be more than 50, suggesting the BCP figure will be somewhere between 50 and 100 just a day before the earliest point at which Boris Johnson has said pupils could return to the classroom.

Imperial College London says: “In the map, we show the probability of an area being a hotspot in the next one, two and three weeks.

“The projections for hotspot assume no change in interventions and human behaviour since a week before the last observed data.”

Areas with high numbers of cases are defined as ‘hotspots’ and mean the area has a high chance of recording more than 50, 100, 200, 300 or 500 cases of the coronavirus per 100,000 people per week.

Public Health England data published on Sunday, February 21, showed 61 cases had been confirmed in the BCP area in past 24, with the latest rolling weekly rate of 150.3 cases per 100,000 people.

The wider Dorset area has a zero per cent chance of recording a weekly rate of more than 100 and just a 14 per cent of it being more than 50 by March 7.

England has been under a national lockdown since January 5 with people urged to ‘stay at home’ and only leave for essential reasons including to work if they cannot do so from home, to buy food, seek medical assistance, meet your support bubble or for exercise.

Boris Johnson will set out a ‘road map’ for how lockdown restrictions could be eased on today, February 22.

To view the Imperial College London map visit