A NEW interactive map showing where coronavirus hotspots could potentially flare up over the next few weeks has been revealed.

Bournemouth Echo:

The map, created by experts at Imperial College London, shows where cases are rising by local authority in England and Wales and predicts where new outbreaks may occur.

Imperial College London says hotspots are defined by local authority areas where weekly reported cases per 100,000 population exceed 50.

According to the map, Birmingham, Caerphilly, Rossendale, South Tyneside and Leeds and Hertsmere have 75 to 100 per cent chance of becoming hotspots by September 20.

The map shows Bournemouth, Christchurch and Poole has a two per cent chance of becoming a hotspot.

Meanwhile, Dorset has a 0 per cent probability of being a hotspot.

The New Forest has a four per cent chance.

Imperial College London said: “We define a local authority to be a hotspot if weekly reported cases per 100,000 population exceed 50. For past weeks we compare the reported cases to the threshold.

“For future weeks, we give probabilities based on our model, which assumes a situation in which no change in interventions (e.g. local lockdowns) occur. To define weeks we use specimen dates, ie the day on which tests are taken.

“We consider a local authority to have increasing new infections if our model estimates that the reproduction number R is greater than 1 with probability of at least 90%.

“Likely increasing” indicates a probability between 75% and 90%. Decreasing and likely decreasing are defined analogously, but consider R less than 1.”

Last week, Public Health Dorset said the county had seen a “small rise” in the number of cases.

Data released by the health watchdog confirmed 28 positive cases in the BCP Council area in the seven days between August 26 and September 1.

The Dorset Council area recorded nine during the same period.