This week is set to be another crucial week for Theresa May's Brexit deal. Here's your guide to the big votes happening this week. 

Tuesday 7pm: the ‘meaningful vote’ on the withdrawal agreement as it stands. Possibly the last vote on this deal, as the EU has said it will not consent to further changes.

If MPs vote yes tonight, we leave the EU under the current deal, including the controversial backstop. Whether it passes is likely to depend on whether the European Research Group (ERG) faction of the Conservative Party and the DUP believe the backstop arrangements have been significantly amended.

In his legal advice on Theresa May’s Strasbourg agreement, Attorney General Geoffrey Cox said this morning that new provisions “reduce the risk” of the UK being “indefinitely and involuntarily” held in the backstop, but said that “the legal risk remains unchanged” that the UK would have no legal means of exiting without EU agreement.

Bournemouth East MP Tobias Ellwood, North Dorset MP Simon Hoare, West Dorset MP Sir Oliver Letwin and New Forest West MP Sir Desmond Swayne all backed the original withdrawal agreement in January. Mr Ellwood has since heavily criticised the ERG for ‘holding the party hostage’.

If the PM loses tonight, on Wednesday there will be a vote on no-deal. If MPs vote to leave without a deal, that’s what happens.

Mr Ellwood and Sir Oliver were among the MPs who put pressure on the Government to put this vote on the table, despite Theresa May’s previous claims that ‘no-deal is better than a bad deal’.

Bournemouth West MP Conor Burns, Christchurch MP Sir Christopher Chope, South Dorset MP Richard Drax, Poole MP Sir Robert Syms and Mid-Dorset and North Poole MP Michael Tomlinson all voted against the original withdrawal agreement in January.

It is understood Sir Robert Syms has told Mrs May that he will vote for the deal this evening.

Mr Burns, Sir Christopher and Mr Tomlinson have all been associated with the ERG ­– the latter was once its vice-chairman – and have expressed support for a no-deal Brexit.

The three, alongside many other MPs, have also stressed that no-deal should not be taken off the negotiating table as they say it plays in the UK’s favour.

If, as expected, MPs vote NOT to leave without a deal, Thursday is likely to see a vote to extend Article 50.

If the commons votes to ask for an extension, the EU would then vote, on March 21, on whether to grant this request, with all 27 countries having to agree.

If they said yes, it would likely be for less than three months (to avoid the UK having to take part in European Parliament elections), and it is not clear what would be achieved in this time to break the deadlock.

Mr Tomlinson has previously expressed doubt over whether the EU would grant this request, considering the proximity to the elections.

If the EU says no, the PM’s deal might get a third hearing in the House of Commons, since the only choices would be that, no deal, or revoking Article 50 against the party’s manifesto commitment in the 2017 election.

If MPs voted NOT to ask to extend Article 50, there would be no majority for anything at all – deal, no deal, extension or revocation – and who knows what would happen then.