Poll position

Unlike America, where General Elections are fixed every four years, the British PM can call an election when he (or she) likes. Which, if the rumours are anything to go by, Gordon Brown could very do on September 25, when he makes his speech to the New Labour conference at the BIC.

The Daily Echo has discovered rumours of an autumn poll are so strong Bournemouth council has contacted hundreds of election volunteer staff to put them on standby.

Speculation has been building Gordon Brown took over Number 10 in June.

Aides played it down but better-than-expected opinion polls, have prompted supporters to suggest capitalising on his popularity. They call it the Brown Bounce.

If his approval ratings translated into votes he could be looking at increasing the Labour majority of 69 to 100.

Bob Wilmot, a worker at the Remploy factory in Parkstone, believes Brown needs the public's mandate to govern as Prime Minister. "I don't think he wants to be seen as stepping into his predecessor's shoes," he said.

He would also enjoy the very real prospect of seeing off Conservative leader David Cameron, whose approval rating in a YouGov poll published on Friday was at 20 per cent, while 44 per cent now believe Mr Brown would make the better Prime Minister.

Lesley Darby, 50, of Southbourne, is among them: "I think Brown has proved himself as Chancellor of the Exchequor and earned the right to govern as Prime Minister. He stayed loyal to Blair, even though they weren't friends."

As Mr Brown had a good summer, David Cameron, beset by confusion over grammar schools and apparent policy U-turns, has not.

Theresa Pace, a forty-year-old worker at Standard Life in Bournemouth, is typical of grass roots Tory support alienated by the new touchy-feely Conservative party. "Cameron's no good," said the Charminster resident. "He may want to hug a hoodie, but I don't. We need someone to sort out the youth of this country and to look out for the hard-working tax-payer."

However, this has not stopped his party from preparing for a possible early election. Only two weeks ago Tory chairman Caroline Spelman warned candidates that an election could be called "at any time from the beginning of September" and it is understood that the Conservatives have drawn up an emergency manifesto in preparation.

Joyce Holt, 79, a Sunderland native on holiday in Bournemouth, is one who won't be voting for a Conservative manifesto, emergency or otherwise. "It's too early for a general election, but in any case, Cameron's all at sea," she said.

Of course, despite the fortuitous readings, the Labour Government may reject the idea of an autumn poll for historical reasons. Psephologists point out that Labour traditionally called spring polls because the weather is better and it was believed their less well-off supporters who didn't have private transport would find it easier to walk to the voting booths.

The last autumn General Election was 33 years ago in October 1974 and that, too, was called by a Labour Prime Minister. Harold Wilson hoped to gain a working majority following the hung parliament that emerged from the poll held in February that year. He scraped home with a majority of three, saved from a Tory triumph by the Ulster Unionist MPs' decision not to accept the Conservative whip, following disgruntlement over the 1973 Sunningdale agreement.

John Evans, a retired miner from South Wales, voted in that election, and has vowed to vote in the next. For the eighty-two year-old holiday maker, any candidate will be an improvement on Tony Blair, "in my opinion, the worst Prime Minster ever."

Gordon Brown, of course, does not face Mr Wilson's dilemma (or Mr Blair's unpopularity).

However, as his aides crunch the numbers and take the political temperature, perhaps he should find time to study Harold Wilson's words from the 1974 October manifesto.

"At every turn we have found ourselves faced in Parliament by a majority which could, and did, coalesce to frustrate the policies we had put before the nation," said Mr Wilson. "What is still more serious has been the widespread expectation of an inevitable and early General Election, which created uncertainty in industry and the other institutions of our British society."

The uncertainty today is minimal and so is the expectation. But, until we know one way or another, brace yourself for the general election story to run and run.