WHAT did just a little more recent opinion poll support for Brexit do?

It caused a further sharp fall in the value of the pound sterling, which is now, incidentally, down well over 10 per cent since November 2015 against, of all currencies, the much-derided euro!

If that is what mere fear of Brexit does, then, far from ‘scaremongering’, the writing is clearly on the wall as to what actual Brexit might do – even, possibly, to the degree of pound-euro parity.

The ‘canary in the mine’ is, indeed, singing loudly now, and a likely ‘knock-on’ consequence would be a sharp interest rate rise to try to protect the pound, with obvious effects on mortgages and, possibly, even house prices.

Imports, too, would then cost much more, and, since our imports easily exceed our exports, this would mean higher retail prices in the shops and higher fuel costs in particular.

How long would such recessionary pain last and for what ultimate gain?

The bottom line is that no-one really knows, though several years seems likely, and why do we need this when there is so little, if any, ultimate gain in the prospect?

For example, who can guarantee us any new trade agreements at all, let alone ones giving us better trading conditions than those we have now?

Who, too, can guarantee that there would be no new tariff, or non-tariff, trade barrier, or even visa requirements in the event of Brexit?

Who can even give us any assurance that an Australian-type points-based immigration control system would actually reduce immigration anyway? It certainly hasn’t in Australia.?

The whole thing looks to me like an exercise in unnecessarily high risk, with the most likely consequence of Brexit being that the UK government would indeed ‘take control’ of what is now the world’s fifth biggest economy – but only after it had been needlessly plunged into a seriously deep recession for who knows how long.

Then, at last, we might all see that the grass isn’t really greener on the other side of the fence - even if the leaves are.

BRIAN MORGAN

Golf Links Road

Ferndown