PACIFIC Ocean winds and melting ice sheets mean it is too early to say what sort of winter Dorset has in store, according to the Met Office.

But residents wondering whether they will be reaching for the show shovel or an umbrella may be wise to keep both near at hand, with the strongest El Nino weather pattern in 50 years under way off the South American coast, and anomalous sea temperature readings in the North Atlantic.

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The what now? 

El Nino describes a warming of central and eastern parts of the Pacific which occurs every few years and causes an area of low air pressure to develop, driving winds and resulting in both droughts and heavy rain in regions where they are usually uncommon.

While effects are more pronounced elsewhere in the world, the UK may experience colder weather as a result, with dry, freezing winds assailing the country from the east,

However, El Nino may be undone by the so-called North Atlantic 'cold blob'.

Records show sea temperatures in this patch of the ocean - south of Greenland and Iceland - are bucking global trends and have been very cold since the start of the year.

Climate scientists believe the effect may be related to the melting of the Greenland ice sheet. Some forecasters have said this blob will mean -21c and heavy snowfall over Christmas.  But the Met Office says it might actually result in a more mild and rain-soaked winter than normal.

So will it snow?

"There is already a strong El Nino which can affect UK weather and bring colder average temperatures, usually to the second half of winter - January and February," said Met Office spokesman Laura Young. 

"[But] the cold blob could cause a stronger jet stream which would mean we will have a warmer, wetter winter. There was a very strong jet stream in the 2013/14 winter which is why there was so much rainfall."

I'm confused...

Essentially, Ms Young says there's no way of predicting what will happen with any certainty, and the UK might experience heavy rainfall and warm weather up to Christmas followed by two months of freezing temperatures and dry winds.

"At the moment it is far too early to tell if it will affect our weather or not. It will be interesting to see how it unfolds," she said.

So don't place any bets just yet.