DORSET’S economy is in recovery – but a slowdown this year may be more likely than an accelerating pick-up.

That is among the conclusions of a Bournemouth University study which compared the county’s business performance with the rest of the country.

The Regional Economic Development Business Intelligence Report backs the view of businesses leaders such as Dorset Chamber of Commerce and Industry chief executive Ian Girling, who have said a recovery is under way but with no room for complacency.

The report, by Nigel Jump, professor in regional economic development, said the UK economy was growing but that public and external deficits were “huge” and productivity was barely growing.

“Against this background, the local Dorset and neighbouring economies are in recovery mode but performance varies widely by firm and by sector, according to micro factors related to strategy, technology and market participation,” he wrote.

He added: “Barring shocks, the recovery will persist through 2015. Yet, with little expectation, of an aggregate productivity boost, with global market conditions fraught, with government austerity set to continue, and with living standards precarious, the economy may struggle to maintain momentum.”

The report says the Dorset economy is worth about £16bn in gross value added (GVA), the standard measure of local output – around 13.5 per cent of the South West’s economy.

Productivity stood at £22,981 GVA per head annually in Bournemouth Poole, or 98 per cent of the national average. In the rest of Dorset, the figure was £18,293 – 78 per cent of the national average.

Professor Jump said the Bournemouth and Poole figure was broadly good for an urban area outside London, while the figure for the rest of Dorset was good for a more rural area.

Btu he added: “There is no room for complacency, however. Competing places are not standing still, and whilst these things change slowly, there is a small tendency for the gap within Dorset to widen over time. Issues of low productivity and poor market engagement remain significant.”

The report found Dorset’s economy mirrored national trends “quite faithfully”. It said there were risks to the national recovery and that “it might be more surprising if the economy accelerated than if it slowed through the rest of 2015”.

Professor Jump wrote that the prospects for the future would vary by sector and “high value, market-driven providers to other businesses more favoured than commodity, consumer-orientated goods and services”.

He added: “For all, it is a case of being innovative and entrepreneurial, building skills, engaging with and in vibrant markets and investing sensibly in productive capacity and technology.”